Kochi: Riafy Technologies, a company incubated at Kochi’s Startup Village has predicted the results of the Delhi Assembly elections using a revolutionary new data analysis tool and they run contrary to nearly every forecast made so far for the hotly contested polls.
According to data crunched by RIA, a relationship engine patented by Riafy, the Congress will retain power in Delhi and the newly-formed Aam Aadmi Party, which is expected by many to make significant inroads into the 70-seat State legislature, will be unable to open its account this time.
This is RIA’s first attempt at poll predictions after forecasting the box office performance of Hindi movies with an accuracy rate of more than 86% consistently for the past one year.
RIA analyses historical as well as online data for arriving at results and it intuitively modifies search results based on the user’s web footprints, according to John Mathew, the CEO of Riafy. “We work in Relational Intelligence; as in we try to find relationship patterns from data which are then used in prediction”.
RIA used historical data and current political sentiment to calculate the number of people who would be voting in Delhi this time. Then it estimated vote share by analysing a number of factors including vote banks, religion/caste, voter inertia, candidate relationship value (indicates how well a candidate is connected to voters in his constituency), media value (indicates the influence that ‘news about a candidate’ has on voters in his constituency) and so on.
A large share of the online chatter around the Delhi elections was generated by automated software or bots and ‘non-voters’ which has little influence on the ground, says John. This also makes their analysis different from exit polls.
“Exit polls are conducted on a limited sample space. RIA on the other hand tries to aggregate sentiment from a large set. It tries to understand ‘why’ a person writes a comment rather than trying to understand ‘what’ they wrote. This makes the user’s intent more clear and hence the conclusions drawn more accurate. While the exit poll collects opinions from, at the most, 1,00,000 people; RIA quantifies its results from more than 10,00,000, he added.
Kerala IT News